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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Australian team host a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Squad Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player in a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a process that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, change is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the first Test, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance undergoes a far greater change with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the visiting team. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the corner, and England ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.